Incumbency, Electoral Safety, and Turnover in the House of Representatives, 1952–76

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Abstract
Two hypotheses have received a great deal of attention from students of congressional elections. First, many analysts have concluded that an increase in the electoral value attached to incumbency accounts for the rise in incumbents' victory margins observed since the mid-sixties. Second, many scholars have attributed the decline in electoral turnover to the percentage increase in victory margins. Analyzing the electoral histories of 13 House cohorts (1952-76), this study reexamines these two hypotheses within the framework of a quasi-experimental design. The results presented here, in contrast to those of previous studies, cast doubt on the increased incumbency effect. Moreover, little relationship is found between an increase in electoral safety, as reflected by increased victory margins, and a decline in electoral turnover.

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