Reliability predictions for integrated circuits from test structure data

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Abstract
For the prediction of product reliability from test structure data the observed times to failure have to be fitted to an assumed probability distribution and extrapolated to small failure probabilities. And the probability distribution for the (small) test structure size has to be extrapolated to the corresponding distribution for the (larger) product size.With respect to the probability distribution it is shown that even in the ‘defect’ dominated case, extreme value distributions do not have to apply. This leads to considerable extrapolation uncertainties.For the size extrapolation of test structure data to the product the degree of dependence between times to failure of substructures on the same chip is of crucial importance. It can change the predicted reliability by orders of magnitude. A model describing this dependence is given and analyses yielding the required information are suggested.

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